Vermeer Partners on LinkedIn: #vermeerpartners #theartofinvestment #investmentmanagement… (2025)

Why would Rishi call for an election now? Inflation stats pushed back timing expectations of rate cuts. With no sight of near time rate cuts Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls for an election on the 4th July.The performance of Nvidia has been very good – in both share price returns and revenue growth. Nvidia exceeded lofty expectations as the company continues to outperform and out manoeuvre rivals. National Grid (and Great Portland Estates) were on the front foot, raising cash from current shareholders through a rights issue (shareholders have the right to maintain their weighting in the larger company). Big news in the investment portal subsector as Hargreaves Lansdowne rejected a bid and AJ Bell had very good results and then the founder sold some stock.So, it turns out the train and plane traveller is popping into M&S and buying a sandwich rather than queuing up on the concourse for an Upper Crust alternative. Greencore (the sandwich maker), who make the sandwiches for M&S – an other retailers – had excellent results. M&S surpassed expectations (pre-tax profit was £716.4million vs £685.6million expected) as the turnaround continues to gain traction but the print for SSP Group (owner of Upper Crust, Ritazza and other outlets at transport hubs) was underwhelming.Microsoft CEO Satay Nadella took the stage this week to give a keynote address at Microsoft Build, the company’s annual develop conference, where he unveiled several new AI initiatives. Interestingly, Nadella made the case that Moore’s Law is being replaced by Scaling laws for AI – please see attached for the full quote as its worth a read.#vermeerpartners#TWTWTW#thatwastheweekthatwas#tech#sandwich

Market brief - 25th JulyMichael Saunders, the ex-member of the MPC, thinks Rachel Reeves will increase tax to raise about £25bn of additional tax revenue.Starmer said the finances were even worse than expected and there has been near-constant criticism from Reeves over how the economy was handled, perhaps warming up to a taxation u-turn.Opinions remain split over a rate cut at the MPC meeting next week, but where services inflation and wage inflation have not fallen in line with headline inflation, wider market sentiment is for another month of pause before any rate cuts.Politics is still the hot topic after Biden stepped down.Dear Old Donald appears to have been wrong-footed.So far, he’s refusing a second debate with Harris and where he was going after Biden’s mental capacity, Team Trump may be buying time to find a new angle of attack.Some remain hopeful for a rate cut next week, but the market is positioned more for a September cut, when the Fed has had access to more inflation data.GBP kicked off around1.2890 against USD, 1.1890 against EUR and EURUSD was around 1.0840 on the open. #Finance #FxPlew #news

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https://lnkd.in/ePHK-7Ee#70percentofusaInflstioncausedbyCorporateProfits.//Prices for consumers rose by 3.4% over the past year, but input costs for producers increased by just 1%, according to the authors’ calculations, which were based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Income .//CITIZENS UNITEDThe poison in American Life .last week we were treated to the images of a fuselage door plug separating in ✈️ off a new re-engineered For 3 years after 4 crashes and over 700 dead_ FAA supervised it all.In my opinion this henious event is prescriptive to many of our Societal 🤒. Our strength and vitality come from 3 sources.1.Open upward Mobility2The Ladder for UM_A Vibrant and exuberant middle class 3.Institutions and governance which mix us up.___Money and wealth has now put a Wall between us at all levels from our neighborhoods to our conversations.The top 1% holds $38.7 trillion in wealth. That's more than the combined wealth of America's middle class, a group many economists define as the middle 60% of households by income. Those households hold about 26% of all wealth. Low-income Americans, representing the bottom 20% by income, own about 3% of the wealth.Dec 6, 2023.This piggy spectacle has been exacerbated by Ignoring well being safety of our Citizens on the alter of Corporate profits even further girged by BushTrump corporate and 1percent income-tax resulting in Trillions of National debt.//I started with the Boeing debacle which started with The company putting Bean Counters vs Flight Engineers in charge of the company. They engineered the bottom line for moneyANDFound it.The latest incident was caused out by yet another bottom line miracle@_Contracting Out the Door manufacturing installation and inspection.

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Whether It’s Work, Wealth, or Wages: You ARE Better Off Today - https://lnkd.in/gZh3FGhg || PDF: https://lnkd.in/g7Y6WRUuAre you better off than you were four years ago? That’s a classic election year question. And while we are undoubtedly better off than we were in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, many people still think the economy under President Donald Trump was better.We looked at 10 objective measures in the areas of wealth, work, and wages and made the fairest comparisons possible. In instances where the pandemic might have caused a shock to the downside (like employment), we focused on the best months or last months so as not to skew the results. To account for inflation, we used real dollar comparisons where appropriate.We found that Americans are wealthier today, working more today, earning more today, more likely to be insured today than under the very best days of Donald Trump.There is a paradox in public opinion surveys about the economy—people believe they and their community are doing well but not the nation as a whole. This deck does not explain why people’s views on the national economy are negative, but it does lend insight on why they feel they are doing well. It is because, on average, they are.

Following on from my post the other day on 'Greedflation', here's another example of the consumer gaslighting going on 🤪 🤏 Shrinkflation 🤏"I'm sure these used to be bigger?!" Unlike traditional inflation, where prices rise, shrinkflation involves reducing the quantity or quality of products while keeping prices the same. It's an invisible cost increase that many don't notice at first glance.Large businesses are finding ways to pass on costs without raising prices outright. This trend is particularly pervasive in the UK.Why Does It Matter?Shrinkflation might not seem like a big deal at first, but it has real effects on budgeting and consumer value when it comes to overall financial planning. It subtly erodes purchasing power, much like traditional inflation. Consumers pay the same, but get less. 💷 While many of us scrutinise direct taxes on our earnings and purchases, this is a less noticeable form of 'tax' creeping into our daily lives. #wealthmanagement #shrinkflation #financialplanningTweed Wealth Management

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Last week's market movements in 7 minutes...https://ow.ly/X2eV50RYxXJ💼 Last week Rishi Sunak caught a number of commentators off guard, by calling a General Election for 4 July. In this race, the economy is likely to be a key battleground. In this race, the economy is likely to be a key battleground. However, our Head of Economic Research, Hetal Mehta, notes: “Fiscal policy will be highly constrained for whoever wins."📈When announcing the election, the Prime Minister described inflation as being back to normal. He was referring to an Office for National Statistics report, that showed UK inflation had fallen to 2.3%.🌍 Outside the UK, the US Federal Reserve released minutes from its latest meeting, which reinforced the belief that they are willing to keep rates higher for longer, adding to the narrative that the first rate cut is more likely to come from Europe.

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For those who believe in the effectiveness of outdated 1970s medicine to combat inflation, it's important to reconsider. The current approach could risk stalling the economy. The Federal Reserve's actions might be inadvertently harming the economy rather than healing it. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that cash-rich corporations benefit from high-interest rates, often paying minimal taxes. #Economy #Inflation #FederalReserve

"Last quarter’s gross domestic product showed growth of 5.2%. That’s a number that dwarfs all other pre-Covid recovery numbers in recent memory. Unemployment is at a record low. Each month the economy is adding hundreds of thousands of new jobs. There are millions of more open jobs available today compared with 2019.Yes, prices are higher, but inflation is down from a 9% annual rate to about 3%, so whatever the Federal Reserve did to offset the treasury’s spending on fiscal programs seems to be working. The stock market is near all-time highs, as is household wealth. Credit card delinquency rates are lower than they’ve been for the past 30 years as are delinquencies on all loans across the banking system. Holiday retail sales were strong and online sales boomed. Plenty of capital is available for businesses that need it and corporations have more cash on hand than in any year before the pandemic."https://lnkd.in/gS3M9MFX

My poll asking whether people are noticing an upturn in the economy has now closed and regardless of whether our friend, Rishi, thinks there is an upturn in the economy, the results have barely changed from the last time I ran the poll earlier in the year. Results are:🍓 Those seeing an upturn 44%🍉 Those not seeing an upturn 38%🍋 Those uncertain 19%So 57% of those who voted are not seeing an upturn or uncertain. I suspect things may start to look more positive as summer approaches and will run this again in a couple of months time. Please continue to vote.

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👨💼 Last Wednesday saw Rishi Sunak take everyone (including his own MPs) by surprise and announce that a general election would be held on 4th July. Drenched in rain, with D:Ream’s ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ (adopted by Labour for their 1997 election campaign) blaring out from beyond Downing Street – the optics of the announcement perhaps could have been better for Sunak. 📈 Market impact of the election announcement was muted – however, of more note was undoubtedly headline inflation coming down from 3.2% to 2.3%, but above expectations of 2.1%. A good drop on the face of it – though the UK 5y Gilt did spike from 4.009% to 4.182% as expectations reduced of an interest rate cut sooner rather than later.✂ The FOMC minutes for the Fed’s 30th April – 1st May meeting were released on Wednesday, showing that policymakers are still highly cautious about cutting rates too soon. Governor Waller also stated he will need to see ‘several months’ of good data before voting to cut – with Chair Jerome Powell noting the Fed ‘need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work’. The widely watched CME FedWatch Tool now has the chances of a September hold at 48.4%, vs 38.2% a week ago.🔥 Nvidia announced a headline grabbing set of results on Wednesday, with demand remaining strong for their advanced, market-leading chips. Revenue came in at $26.04bn vs $24.65bn expected, and future guidance was also very positive for its next-generation AI chip – ‘Blackwell’. The company also announced a 10 to 1 stock split, with its share price rising +12.13% through to the end of the week, and heading above $1000 for the first time.

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